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Red-hot Capitals putting up historically good numbers

Wednesday, 01.27.2016 / 3:00 AM / Behind the Numbers

By Rob Vollman - NHL.com Correspondent

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Red-hot Capitals putting up historically good numbers
The Washington Capitals are dominating the NHL in much the same way they did in 2009-10, when they won the Presidents' Trophy with 121 points. This season’s Capitals may be even better.

The Washington Capitals are dominating the NHL in much the same way they did in 2009-10, when they won the Presidents' Trophy with 121 points. This season’s Capitals may be even better: Washington is on pace for 130 points, which would surpass the 124 points posted by the 2005-06 Detroit Red Wings as the best single-season performance since the 2004-05 lockout.

In 46 games this season, the Capitals have 73 points, which is their best pace since Oct. 27, 2010.

Washington's fortunes have closely mirrored Alex Ovechkin's individual performance throughout the past decade. That quick rise and the long peak in the first half of the above chart coincides with his three consecutive 100-point seasons from 2007-08 to 2009-10 and the back-to-back Hart Trophy wins it produced.

Statistically, the majority of players peak, when it comes to scoring, at age 24, after which they gradually decline. Washington's recent success is partly because of the rapid development of the team's new scoring leader, Evgeny Kuznetsov, 23. With 48 points in 46 games, Kuznetsov is tied for fifth in the NHL scoring race, and he’s on pace for 86 points during a full season.

Another key factor in Washington's success is having its scoring spread out beyond just Ovechkin and Kuznetsov. Seven Capitals have at least 13 goals this season. That's quite similar to the 2005-06 Red Wings, who ended that season with four 80-point players and eight players with at least 20 goals. If defenseman Mike Green had scored one more goal and four more points, then the 2009-10 Capitals would also have matched each of those totals.

The following table demonstrates how the 2015-16 Capitals are almost as dominant offensively as each of those teams. The 2009-10 Capitals had the highest goals-per-game since 2005, Detroit was third, and this season’s Capitals rank 13th. The ranking in parentheses after each category in the table reflect the League rank for that season.

Category Detroit 2005-06 Washington 2009-10 Washington 2015-16
Goals per Game 3.67 (2nd) 3.82 (1st) 3.33 (1st)
Power-Play Percentage 22.1% (1st) 25.2% (1st) 27.1% (1st)
Shooting Percentage 10.8% (7th) 11.6% (1st) 10.8% (1st)
Even-Strength Shot Attempts per 60 minutes 62.6 (1st) 61.3 (2nd) 54.9 (14th)
The power-play percentages are strong for all three teams, but the current Capitals have the greatest reliance on their success with the extra man. At even strength, they are relatively average at generating shot attempts, but have the best power-play percentage since 2005.

Defensively, one of the big differences between these three teams is in goal. This season, the Capitals have Braden Holtby, one of the front-runners for the Vezina Trophy, backed up by the highly effective Philipp Grubauer. Together, they have the highest save percentage (.926) in the League.

In contrast, Detroit had 32-year-old Manny Legace in goal, backed up by 33-year-old Chris Osgood, while the 2009-10 Capitals had 33-year-old Jose Theodore backed up by 21-year-old rookies Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth. The goalies for those teams were slightly above the League averages for save percentage with .899 and .908, respectively.

Category Detroit 2005-06 Washington 2009-10 Washington 2015-16
Goals Allowed per Game 2.51 (3rd) 2.77 (16th) 2.15 (1st)
Penalty-Killing Percentage 85.5% (3rd) 78.8% (25th) 84.9% (4th)
Save Percentage .906 (8th) .911 (14th) .926 (1st)
Even-Strength Shot Attempts Allowed per 60 minutes 47.8 (3rd) 54.6 (17th) 54.5 (16th)
The current Capitals have allowed the seventh-lowest rate of goals per game since 2005, but they are similar to the 2009-10 Capitals in that they are relatively average in terms of preventing shot attempts at even strength. Washington's defensive success this season stems from a much-improved penalty kill and the League's best goaltending.

Despite their regular-season success, the 2005-06 Red Wings and the 2009-10 Capitals were eliminated in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Will this season's Capitals avoid that fate?

In 2006, the Red Wings were eliminated by the Edmonton Oilers in one of the biggest upsets in recent history. It was a close, six-game series in which each game was decided by a single goal (excluding empty-net goals), except for Detroit's 4-2 victory in Game 4. The Wings outshot Edmonton by a 238-155 margin, but the Oilers were a team of destiny that went all the way to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final.

In 2010, the Capitals took a 3-1 series lead against the Montreal Canadiens, outscoring Montreal 19-12. But then Montreal's goalie, Jaroslav Halak, stopped 131 of 134 shots, for a .978 save percentage, and allowed a single goal in each of the final three games. The Capitals outshot Montreal 292-193 in the series.

Essentially, the 2005-06 Red Wings and the 2009-10 Capitals outshot and outplayed their opponents, but they ran into hot goaltending and were on the wrong side of some close games. The big difference may be that the current Capitals have a hot goaltender of its own, and have a League-leading .722 points percentage in games decided by a single goal.

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