Fantasy Hockey
Sean Allen, Special to ESPN.com 5y

Rest-of-season fantasy hockey rankings: Week 3

Fantasy NHL, Fantasy, NHL

Rest-of-season rankings, in essence, are a way to indicate that you would trade Player A in a one-for-one deal for any player listed below them. Of course, that's thinking about things in a vacuum and, in the case of these rankings, using ESPN standard scoring as the measuring stick. At the end of the day, that's what I'm saying with these rankings.

So, when I take a player and move him up 60 spots in the rankings to No. 44 overall, it means I'm pretty committed to the early returns. It also means I'm doing that with a player who wasn't nearly as highly regarded as he may be now. Morgan Rielly, however, is a player  on whom I'm willing to take that kind of risk at this point in the season.

I know hyping up the Toronto Maple Leafs at this point seems passé, but in the fantasy universe we have to be cautious with such moves. Championships can be won by getting a step ahead of the field on a player, but they can also be lost by getting too excited over a small sample size. However, there are some extenuating circumstances with Rielly that behoove us to make this investment. Value is created when talent meets opportunity -- and he is capitalizing on both.

Rielly is the perfect age for an offensive breakout from a blueliner. He's turning 25 before the season is over. He has five full seasons of NHL experience already under his belt and a resumé that shows offensive upside -- most notably in his final season of juniors, where he notched 54 points in 60 games for the Moose Jaw Warriors. Now, with a deadly one-two punch at center in front of him this season in the form of John Tavares and Auston Matthews, Rielly is getting the opportunity to use those offensive instincts to the fullest.

First, there is the ridiculous Toronto power play, which is scoring at a 47.4 percent clip so far through seven games. Rielly has seen 15:43 of power-play ice time, with Tavares and Matthews out there with him for all but 30 of those seconds. He has assisted on six of Toronto's nine power-play goals this season. Can this power play keep it up? Will Rielly remain this involved? While scoring on every other man-advantage might be asking a lot, 1-in-3 isn't out of the question for this group. Plus, Rielly isn't really threatened all that much by Jake Gardiner or other Leafs defenders at this point.

Second, we have even-strength. Rielly has played 126:47 of even-strength time so far this season. Matthews and Tavares have played only 4:01 of even-strength ice time together this season. A full 51:24 of Rielly's even-strength time has been with Matthews, and 49:10 has been with Tavares. While I haven't yet been able to find a way to total the combined ice time of all three players, given the very small amount of overlap between Matthews and Tavares, I don't think it's too far off to estimate that around 77 percent of Rielly's even-strength time has come with one of those two players.

In other words, we have a talented young defenseman who is getting two minutes of power-play time per game with two of the most dynamic centers in the NHL and, when he's not on the man-advantage, he can pass the puck forward to either Tavares or Matthews a vast majority of the time he's on the ice. I'm usually risk-averse when it comes to making big rankings swings this soon because, more often than not, early-season explosions like this tend to fizzle over time. However, I'm all in on Rielly as a D1 this season and think his new No. 8 overall defenseman ranking fits him well.


Forwards on the move

Brayden Point, C, Tampa Bay Lightning (up 13 spots to No. 58): Seemingly the only player who came ready to score for the Lightning, Point is being rewarded for his early-season success with a promotion to the top line alongside Steven Stamkos for Tuesday's matchup against the Carolina Hurricanes. Point is also confidently being rolled on the top power-play unit, which should get going in the very near future.

Max Pacioretty, W, Vegas Golden Knights (up six spots to No. 93): This isn't the result of a reaction to what I've seen, but rather a pre-emptive promotion in the rankings. The Golden Knights aren't scoring, they've lost Paul Stastny for two months and they have a 30-goal winger toiling on the second line. I know the top line showed a lot of chemistry in 2017-18, but this is a new season -- and the Knights need results. If I had to guess, I'd say it shouldn't be more than another game or two before coach Gerard Gallant demotes Reilly Smith to try and spark something. Pacioretty was already promoted to the top power-play unit this week, so an even-strength adjustment is the natural next step.

William Nylander, W, Toronto Maple Leafs (down 31 spots to No. 127): William who? This is looking more and more like a stalemate that could drag out longer than fantasy hockey managers can wait. Why? Nylander has lost all his bargaining position. Do the Leafs need him to help out on Auston Matthews' Meanwhile, Kasperi Kapanen scored two goals on Monday and has eight points in five games as Matthews' winger. I'll hold tight for one more week, but after that, I'm tempted to remove Nylander from the rankings completely. He drew his line in the sand, but the Leafs are in a position to just walk away and let him have the whole beach to play on by himself.

Defenseman on the move

Justin Faulk, D, Carolina Hurricanes (up 32 spots to No. 121): What's important here is that coach Rod Brind'Amour went right back to the Faulk well this season, despite his poor showing from last season. On pace for 260 shots and with a positive plus/minus rating, the peripheral stats are back to a point where Faulk is once again a safe play. The goals will come if he keeps taking shots and, with the improved Hurricanes offense, this could be a season of rebirth for the 26-year-old. Faulk was minus-85 over the previous four seasons combined, so don't underestimate the impact on his fantasy value of his having a positive rating.

Goaltender on the move

Corey Crawford, G, Chicago Blackhawks (up 16 spots to No. 103): He's officially questionable for Thursday's tilt, but the Hawks need Crawford back. Cam Ward hasn't allowed fewer than three goals in any contest and his 4.07 goals-against average is far from the answer Chicago needs in goal. Head injuries -- especially ones that take 10 months to heal -- are very concerning. Still, Crawford wouldn't be coming back at all if he wasn't fully recovered. Will he be the same goalie that posted a save percentage better than .917 in each of the past five seasons? Maybe not right out of the gate, but once his confidence is back, and with a powerful Hawks offense in front of him, he'll be a G1 for fantasy.

New to the rankings

Brady Tkachuk (so good in front of the net on Monday), Kasperi Kapanen, Jaroslav Halak (a handcuff for all Tuukka Rask owners), Tomas Tatar (someone has to score in Montreal), Hampus Lindholm, Alexander Edler, Anders Nilsson (a legitimate chance to take over), Linus Ullmark (see Nilsson, Anders), Nick Foligno, Jason Spezza, Jack Campbell (Jonathan Quick on IR), Alexander Steen (getting a chance on a top line), Justin Williams, Dominik Kahun, Phillip Danault.

Just missed

Richard Panik (taking a lot of shots), Alex Iafallo, Scott Darling, David Rittich, Erik Haula, Max Comtois, Andrew Ladd (playing with Mathew Barzal), Jesper Fast, Kevin Labanc, Sven Baertschi, Joonas Korpisalo.

Dropped out

Jakub Vrana, Patrick Marleau (if only he was on that top power play), Jonathan Bernier (I still like him, but Detroit's defense is ugly), Paul Stastny, Jack Roslovic (no ice time), Bryan Little, Tyler Ennis, Nick Leddy, Colton Parayko, Justin Schultz (out four months), Brendan Perlini, Gustav Nyquist, Ondrej Kase, Jesse Puljujarvi, Tyler Myers.

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