Fantasy Hockey
Sean Allen, Special to ESPN.com 5y

Fantasy hockey forecaster: Dec. 10-16

Fantasy NHL, Fantasy, NHL

Every once in a while during the NHL season, I like to strip away all the extraneous goaltending statistics to see how the field looks at its most basic level, namely 5-on-5 hockey. For fantasy purposes, of course, the results we get are going to factor in all the power plays, penalty kills and overtime stats. That said, how goaltenders fare when everything is even on the ice is usually a very good indicator of how they'll perform going forward.

Obviously, goaltenders on teams with bad penalty kills or those facing opponents with bad power plays will suffer to varying degrees, depending on the situation. That certainly will be reflected in their fantasy stats for your team. That said, those extraneous situations are fluid and can be changed by coaching, personnel and schemes a lot more so than the base statistics we see from good old 5-of-5 action.

Note: As a basis for comparison, the league total for 5-on-5 save percentage is .919 and the league's 5-on-5 GAA is 2.50.

Tuukka Rask, G, Boston Bruins: There is a perfect storm brewing for Rask to be an ideal trade target in your fantasy league. His overall statistics are lower than what he was drafted for, as he sports a 2.62 GAA and .914 save percentage, with only six wins. It helps your case that Jaroslav Halak has been playing well this season, with more wins and much better overall ratios. Halak still has the better ratios at 5-on-5, but they aren't that much better. Rask sports a 1.91 GAA and .930 save percentage at 5-on-5 this season, just a shade behind Halak's 1.50 GAA and .950 save percentage. In fact, both goaltenders are in the top five for 5-on-5 GAA (minimum 10 games played).

In other words, Rask has been just about as good as Halak at even-strength, has the track record as Boston's workhorse goaltender, and should soon see some of the team's best defensive skaters return in Patrice Bergeron and Charlie McAvoy. As I said, it's the perfect time to go after Rask. He has huge upside and should come with a big discount based on the results so far.

Brian Elliott, G, Philadelphia Flyers: The fact that Elliott in No. 7 in the NHL for 5-on-5 GAA is made even more significant by the combined efforts of the other Flyers net-minders this season. At 5-on-5, Elliots sports a 1.99 GAA and .933 save percentage. Meanwhile, Calvin Pickard, Michal Neuvirth, Alex Lyon and, most recently, Anthony Stolarz have combined for a 3.51 GAA and .879 save percentage in those situations. While special teams will remain a problem when Elliott returns from what has now been almost a month-long absence, he is very clearly the Flyers' best hope in the crease. Elliott has been dropped in a lot of fantasy leagues and should be scooped up now as his return edges closer.

Petr Mrazek, G, Carolina Hurricanes: So, Curtis McElhinney has been coming on strong of late. He actually looks quite solid at 5-on-5, too, with a 1.97 GAA. But guess who has a better 5-on-5 GAA? Yes, it's the much younger and more full-of-potential Mrazek (1.68). Special teams have been a bit of a mess for both goaltenders, with seven power-play goals against McElhinney and eight against Mrazek, who has also allowed two shorthanded tallies. If coach Rod Brind'Amour can get his penalty-killers under control, one or both of these goaltenders could emerge to have more consistent fantasy value.

I prefer Mrazek for his age and upside. Besides, McElhinney is dinged up right now, so Carolina recalled prospect Alex Nedeljkovic from the AHL. It would be fantastic if we could just skip ahead in time and have him be the starter now. That really would save us a lot of trouble in the fantasy realm. That said, he may not even see the ice before being returned. Just know that he's looming closer than you might expect and is absolutely the team's "goalie of the future."

Corey Crawford, G, Chicago Blackhawks: Maybe you're like me and are still stashing Crawford on the bench in some leagues, wistfully thinking of his two Stanley Cup rings and fondly recalling the talent that skates in front of him. Well, it's time to wake up. This Chicago team has been brutal -- and Crawford bears plenty of the blame. Among goaltenders who have played a starter's workload so far this season (15-plus games), Crawford's 3.07 GAA has only been better than Craig Anderson at 5-on-5, with his .903 save percentage besting only Mike Smith, Connor Hellebuyck and Martin Jones. Combine the two statistics, and you can make a salient argument that Crawford has been the worst 5-on-5 goaltender  this season. I'm loathe to do it myself, but I think it's time to pull the plug here and fully move on from Crawford.

Connor Hellebuyck, G, Winnipeg Jets: The numbers are not good for Hellebuyck at 5-on-5 this season, with a 2.98 GAA and a previously hinted at save percentage of .900. While this isn't fantastic, we could normally shrug it off because the Jets score more than enough and Hellebuyck can accrue enough fantasy value in wins to wash off some of the stink of his ratios. But I have to take this one further because we now have a small, but not insignificant sample of work from Laurent Brossoit. He stands among the league's best 5-on-5 efforts with a 1.63 GAA and a .949 save percentage.

I don't think he's a threat to Hellebuyck's overall workload just yet, but when the backup is showing up like this and the starter is struggling, it can be a sign that something isn't right with the starter. After all, they play with the same set of skaters in front of them. If I'm in a 14-team league or deeper, I have enough invested in Hellebuyck for me to believe that a handcuff of Brossoit is worth one of my bench spots.


Fantasy Forecaster: Dec. 10-16

Teams playing two games: The Anaheim Ducks are alone in their reduced two-game schedule next week. Outside of Ryan Getzlaf and John Gibson, anyone on this squad is fair game for a benching in weekly leagues.

Teams playing four games: Ten teams play on a four-game slate next week, but the advantage is slightly reduced because only one team is playing a schedule which is two games lighter. Still, look to the extra game for the Arizona Coyotes, Buffalo Sabres, Hurricanes, Blackhawks, Detroit Red Wings, Edmonton Oilers, Los Angeles Kings, Pittsburgh Penguins, Vancouver Canucks and Jets to break ties between similarly ranked players. ... All of the four-game teams have one back-to-back set on the slate, except the Red Wings who have two of them. That means it could be a two-start week for Jonathan Bernier, fresh off of beating the Maple Leafs on Thursday. If you need a "Hail Mary" goaltender in deep leagues, look no further.

Highlights from teams playing three games: The Calgary Flames, Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, New Jersey Devils, Ottawa Senators, Flyers and Washington Capitals are among the three-game teams that have a back-to-back set. The fantasy-relevant workhorse starters among these sides are Semyon Varlamov, Ben Bishop and Braden Holtby, so expect a little less from them as they may get a rest. ... The Senators may have lost Matt Duchene for an extended period of time to a lower-body injury. However, he wasn't playing with Mark Stone or Brady Tkachuk either at even-strength or on the power play, so his absence shouldn't hurt that pair.

For those new to the forecaster chart, here are some explanations: "O" (offense) and "D" (defense) matchup ratings are based on a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup) and are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's season-to-date statistics, its performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played, and its opponents' numbers in those categories. The "Ratings" column lists the cumulative rating from 1 to 10 of that week's offensive ("O") and defensive ("D") matchups.

In the notes below, the focus every week will be mainly on players who are available for potential use. Being rostered in less than 50 percent of ESPN leagues is a good generalized cutoff, but this space will also include players below 10 percent whenever possible to try to cater to deeper formats.


Team notes

Carolina Hurricanes: With two top-six forwards now on the sidelines with concussions, the Hurricanes should give us some new lines on Friday. This is especially important because Carolina has a fantastic schedule next week and should be on the radar for filling in your fantasy roster. I'm guessing that with both Micheal Ferland and Jordan Staal out, and with the struggles the Hurricanes have had scoring lately, Andrei Svechnikov is in for an extended look on a line with Sebastian Aho and/or Teuvo Teravainen. If Svechnikov has been kicked back to the free-agent pile in your league since the draft (and rightly so), pick him back up for a weeklong trial. ... I'm avoiding the net completely here as the split duties and dangerous opponents "sprinkled in" are concerning. What if McElhinney only catches the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Capitals of the four games? Thank u, next!

Winnipeg Jets: Getting to pick on the Blackhawks twice next week should mean some good times for the Jets offense. OK, what else is new? First and foremost, Dustin Byfuglien appears to be ready to return from a concussion and should be in lineups for next week's four-game slate. On the other hand, Josh Morrissey does not. Morrisey's absence on the back end makes Jacob Trouba a much more attractive play as he gets all the secondary defensive scoring to himself, rather than splitting it down the middle with Morrissey.

Player notes

Sam Reinhart, C/W, Buffalo Sabres: He's still available in far too many leagues (30 percent) given his status as the "linemate to the stars." Playing with Jack Eichel and Maurice Richard Trophy threat Jeff Skinner, Reinhart has had a quiet 24 points in 29 games. Since Nov. 1, he has 18 points in 17 games and a plus-13 rating. He should be in lineups in all leagues. The Sabres have a four-game schedule next week, making this the perfect opportunity to fire him up.

Alex Chiasson, W, Edmonton Oilers: Getting to play with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the power play just isn't enough for some players. With Drake Caggiula out with a hand injury, Chiasson played with the Oilers' deadly duo on the regular line as well. We don't know how long Caggiula will be sidelined, and he is in no way assured his roster spot when he returns. Get Chiasson now.

Jake Guentzel, W, Pittsburgh Penguins: Somehow still available in a handful of leagues, Guentzel should be universally rostered at this stage. He has 12 goals and 13 assists in 27 games, regularly takes shifts with Sidney Crosby, and occasionally fills in on the Penguins' top power play. The recent team-wide offensive slump is definitely over, so Guentzel should be locked into lineups again.

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